Ottumwa, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

036
FXUS63 KDMX 111933 AAA
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
233 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms possible at times through tonight. A
  few areas of fog/drizzle possible over central and northern
  Iowa.

- Numerous chances for thunderstorms through much of next week.
  Severe weather will be possible at times.

- Very mild through Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

High pressure across the central Great Lakes and a broad area of low
pressure along the Lee side of the Rockies has led to southerly flow
across a large part of the central and south central CONUS. A steady
stream of deep layer moisture is streaming north from the Gulf with
PWAT values approaching 1.5 inches, which climatologically for
April, is quite high. In the near term, a warm front is lifting
north through central Kansas and will lift north across Iowa
overnight. A few surface based thunderstorms are possible over
southern Nebraska and northern Missouri as the boundary moves into
that area later this afternoon. There remains a low chance that a
strong storm or two reaches southwest Iowa into the evening.
Otherwise for the rest of today, a few storms will move across
southern to central Iowa this afternoon then there will likely be a
lull until later tonight as some mid-level drying occurs. A few
areas of drizzle and perhaps fog may develop ahead of the warm
front. Otherwise, limited thunderstorm activity this evening with
chances increasing again after midnight as the next wave of theta-e
advection and an increasing low level jet arrive.

Temperatures will slowly rise most of the night in response to the
warm front as increasing surface dewpoints rising into the 50s to
near 60 arriving. Gusty winds with a few gusts to near 40 mph
are possible Sunday morning. There is a chance the wind may
approach advisory criteria and will continue to monitor.

Several periods with thunderstorms remain possible Sunday and
Monday though areas of focus are becoming better defined. Drier
air along with and increasing elevated mixed layer (EML) will
move into the northwest Iowa on Sunday. Deeper saturation and
instability is expected from central to southeast Iowa. A few
strong storms are possible with quarter sized hail and 60 mph
winds possible. Another surge of strong theta-e advection lifts
north Sunday night though by this time, the EML will be quite
stout and while there is some chance for elevated convection
above the EML to form, the moisture availability within that
layer is marginal at best for convective development. The EML
will keep much of the area dry early Monday. Strong to severe
storms will be possible mid to late afternoon and into the
evening in vicinity of the warm front which may be well into
Minnesota at that time and along a cold front moving into
western Iowa. Will give higher resolution details on severe
weather chances as these events near. At this point, each
successive potential round of storms becomes more difficult to
predict due to environmental implications from previous
convection and boundary placement. High temperatures Sunday
will be in the 60s and 70s and in the 70s and 80s for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Mild conditions with numerous chances for thunderstorms expected
through the period. Southwest flow aloft will persist Tuesday
and Wednesday with the warm front and instability axis
meandering across the region. Timing and position of the upper
level short wave on Wednesday in particular could lead to severe
weather and tornadic potential. Perhaps a break in the
thunderstorm chances early Thursday before the southwest flow
becomes re-established as a long wave trough carves out across
the western CONUS. This system may bring another round of strong
storms by around Friday. It will feel very much like late
spring much of this week with highs in the 70s and 80s and
overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Cooler weather is expected by
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

IFR cigs over southwest Iowa will expand north/northeast this
afternoon and evening. There may be a period with LIFR cigs,
especially over northern Iowa tonight. A few periods with
showers and thunderstorms remain possible with mid to late
afternoon and later tonight as the two primary focus periods.
Drizzle is also possible at times along with some reduced vsbys
in fog. Southeast wind will turn more south to southwest during
the overnight and into Sunday morning. The wind will be very
gusty Sunday morning with some gusts over 35 kts possible at
times.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Donavon
LONG TERM...Donavon
AVIATION...Donavon
HYDROLOGY...Hahn