Ottumwa, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

629
FXUS63 KDMX 141703
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1203 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool, dry, and breezy conditions are in place all
  day today.

- Monday will be mild, but chances for light showers creep into
  northern Iowa by evening.

- Widespread storm chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

An MCS is currently diving south from Missouri to Arkansas to
Oklahoma ahead of the cold front that passed through the state
yesterday. Morning outflow performed well at stabilizing the warm
sector and limiting our severe weather yesterday. At the time of
writing, a few scattered showers remain in the southeast part of the
state at the 850mb wind shift. A stratus deck is advecting in from
Minnesota and will arrive in northern Iowa in the next few hours,
though this is not handled well by models.

A surface low will continue departing to the east as high pressure
fills in this morning. Between the two, the pressure gradient in the
low levels will be somewhat tight, and 850mb winds near 30 knots
will be in place before sunrise. The enhanced 850mb winds will
likely mix out by late morning, but as it does there will be a
window this morning shortly after sunrise through the late morning
for some wind gusts of 20-25 knots. However, if the cloud deck hangs
on until morning, it may limit mixing of higher momentum down to the
surface and keep gusts slightly lower. Either way, any remaining
stratus will mix out through the early morning and give way to sunny
skies across the state for most of the day. Still, strong cold air
advection will keep highs seasonably cool in the lower 70s today.
The current forecast would put highs across much of the state around
10 degrees below normal.

High pressure and mainly westerly flow dominates on Monday. Highs
will be slightly warmer, though it may be partly cloudy across much
of the state. A cold front associated with another shortwave
embedded in the enhanced 500mb NW flow will be responsible for the
next precipitation chances. The front looks to pass Monday evening
and CAMs bring a few light showers mainly to the northern half of
the state. Thunder is also possible with these showers, as some weak
elevated CAPE is present in most model profiles. QPF is expected to
be <0.1" in most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s continue through the first
half of the work week, with a steady warming trend through
Wednesday. Precipitation chances look to return as soon as
Tuesday, although the highest chances will be on Wednesday.
Severe weather potential may also return on Wednesday. The storm
prediction center has already started to hone in on this
threat, with a 15% risk (equivalent to a slight risk, level 2 of
5) for severe weather over the southern half of Iowa for
Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail today with breezy northwesterly winds
around 15 to 20 kts and gusts around 25 kts to 30 kts. Skies
have become filled with scattered to broken diurnal cumulus
clouds around 3500 to 6000 ft. These will likely persist through
the afternoon, steadily diminishing from northwest to southeast
and after sunset. Winds go light to calm overnight, with a
variable wind direction.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...De Bruin
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Dodson